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Guelph, KW & Cambridge Real Estate Update

The real estate market—and the weather—in Guelph, Kitchener-Waterloo, and Cambridge stayed frozen in March. Definitely not the usual start to our spring season.

Now, while all three regions did see more sales compared to February, it was still the slowest March we’ve had in over ten years. Many buyers are staying on the sidelines, uncertain about what’s coming next. Between the unpredictable tariff situation and the tough weather, confidence took a hit. That said, it seems like Trump is pulling back on adding new tariffs—at least for now. As the weather improves and things settle politically, we expect more buyers to re-enter the market.

Looking at the sales numbers:

Guelph had 138 homes sell in March—that’s a 15% jump from February, but still down over 43% compared to last year.
Kitchener-Waterloo saw 290 sales, up almost 30% month-over-month, but down nearly 30% from last year.
Cambridge recorded 132 sales, again up nearly 30% from February, but still slightly below last year by about 5%.

So, while there’s movement, we’re still seeing fewer sales than we’d typically expect for March. If momentum continues to build, the spring market may not fully emerge until May or June this year.

When it comes to pricing, we are seeing a small dip—mainly because more listings are coming online while demand remains cautious. But all things considered, prices are holding up reasonably well.

In Guelph, the average sale price was just over $776,000—down about 2.8% from February and just under 3% from last year.
Kitchener-Waterloo came in at around $726,000—down a little over 3% from last month and nearly 8% year-over-year.
Cambridge was the exception, with an average price of $750,000. That’s up about 3% from February, though still down nearly 3% compared to last year. The uptick in Cambridge could be tied to more detached homes selling, which naturally bring up the average.

In terms of inventory, 1,506 homes came to market across the region, but only 560 sold. That means supply is growing—which is great news for buyers. For sellers, though, pricing homes properly is key right now.

Overall, it’s still a lower-volume market, mostly due to hesitation and lack of buyer confidence. But pricing remains relatively steady, and plenty of homes are still selling. Interest rates are also much lower than they were this time last year. So, if you’re looking to buy—whether it’s your first home, a move-up, or even an investment—this market presents some strong opportunities.

Questions? Reach out directly!

Economic Update

March’s real estate market was shaped by economic uncertainty, but as we step into April, we’re starting to see a bit more clarity.

In March, Canada saw a decline in employment, with full-time jobs down by 62,000. The most significant losses came from wholesale and retail trade, which fell by 29,000, and the information, culture, and recreation sectors, which dropped by another 20,000. The bulk of these job losses occurred in Ontario, Alberta, and Quebec. Some smaller gains were seen in other areas, likely bouncing back from February’s weather disruptions.

Now, let’s talk about tariffs—because earlier this year, the threat felt overwhelming. But that storm seems to be easing. Trump has announced that no new tariffs will be imposed over the next 90 days. While some still exist—like the 10% tariff on oil, which is unlikely to change given U.S. dependence on our supply, and the 25% tariffs on aluminium and steel—these are challenges that can be addressed through negotiation.

The one that caused the most concern was the automotive tariff, but it’s important to clarify that it only applies to parts of vehicles that fall outside the USMCA agreement. Current estimates suggest just 15% of our auto exports fall into that category, meaning only a fraction will be hit with the full 25% tariff. It’s not ideal—but it’s far less damaging than initially feared. And for now, the U.S. seems more focused on China than Canada. These are solvable issues.

As for interest rates, the Bank of Canada held steady on April 16, keeping the key rate unchanged. While many analysts were hoping for a cut, the Bank is taking a cautious approach—waiting for more data before making a move. That said, signs are pointing in the right direction. Inflation is easing, and most experts agree that rate cuts are coming, possibly as early as June. The good news? The era of rising rates appears to be behind us. A lower interest rate environment is on the horizon—great news for buyers and investors looking to make their move.