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Guelph, KW & Cambridge Real Estate Update

You know, it’s a bit ironic — we’re at the halfway point of the year, and if you think back to those first couple weeks of January, it really looked like 2025 was going to kick off with a strong rebound in the market. There was this sense of momentum building again. And then, well, the tariff wars hit, and that pretty much stalled things out just as they were starting to pick up.

Funny enough, here we are at the end of June, and the last couple of weeks are actually showing signs that we might be bouncing back again. It’s encouraging.

Now, the summer months are usually quieter — people head out on vacation, families take a breather — so if sales just hold steady through the season, that’s actually a really good sign in my opinion. Flat sales in the summer could point to some underlying strength coming back into the market

Prices across Waterloo, Wellington, and Cambridge did creep up in June compared to May — pretty much every property type saw at least a bit of an increase. That said, when you line them up against last June’s numbers, most are still down year over year, with just a few exceptions here and there.

Breaking down the sales numbers

Guelph home sale in June remain the same as May at 177, but down 7.33% from last year.
KW’s market saw 468 homes sold—up 7% from May and up 6% year-over-year.
Cambridge saw 149 homes sold, which is an 7% decrease from May, down 8% compared to last year.

In terms of pricing

Guelph’s average sale price landed at $826,967 — almost identical to last month, but what’s interesting is it’s up 4.85% compared to this time last year. In my opinion, that bump probably comes down to how much prices dipped last June through August.
Over in Kitchener-Waterloo, the average price came in around $760,414 — down about 2.17% from the month before. Too soon to say if that’s just a blip or the start of something bigger. Year-over-year, it’s only down 1.7%, so not much change there.
Cambridge stayed pretty steady too, with an average of $760,636 — basically flat compared to both last month and last year. Not much of a story there, but sometimes flat is good, right?

Inventory keeps building, with 1,810 new listings hitting the market in May. We’re still firmly in a buyer’s market at the moment. So whether you’re buying your first place, looking to invest, or thinking about moving up — there’s no shortage of choice out there, and in my opinion, some good deals to be made too.

For sellers, pricing really is everything right now. You’ve got to show the value — whether that’s staging, a fresh coat of paint, or just making sure you stand out against the competition. And if you get an offer, don’t get too hung up on the little stuff. Homes are selling, but not every one of them. You want yours to be one that does.

In my opinion, the market is slowly but surely showing signs of recovery. I think we’ll see a slightly stronger second half of the year. And if those tariffs get sorted out and bank rates drop a bit more — well, we could be in for a pretty decent finish.

Questions? Reach out directly!

Economic Update

The first six months of 2025 have been anything but calm for Canada’s economy, and anyone watching real estate knows it. So far, we’ve seen the Bank of Canada trim rates twice, bringing the policy rate down by half a point — starting the year at 3.25% and now sitting at 2.75%. That’s a big drop from last June’s 4.75%, so it’s some relief, but borrowing costs are still pinching for a lot of people.

Unemployment’s crept up too — it hit 7% in May, which is higher than it was in January and above last June’s 6.4%. Ontario’s felt the brunt of this year’s back-and-forth U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum, which has made life tough for the province’s big manufacturing base. Factory output’s slipped for months. GDP got a lift early on from exports rushing out before tariffs landed, but then we saw small contractions in April and May. Core inflation started the year at 2.2% but ticked up to 2.6% by May — not ideal, but not runaway either.

There is a hopeful sign for homeowners: RBC says the share of income households need for ownership costs dropped to 55.1% in the first quarter, down from over 60% a year ago. That’s still high, but it’s moving in the right direction. Overall, the economy feels unsettled, but there are a few glimmers that things could slowly find their footing if we catch a bit of luck in the second half of the year.

July will be a telling month for Canada’s economy. All eyes are on whether the Bank of Canada cuts or holds rates at month’s end. We’ll also find out if Canada and the U.S. stick to their 30-day window to reach a tariff deal. Add in fresh data on jobs, inflation, housing starts, and business sentiment — there’s plenty that could shift confidence in the weeks ahead. My sense is that the second half of the year will bring a more solid real estate market. I’m not expecting anything gangbusters, but more of a steady recovery — just a bit more balance and confidence working their way back in.